Developing an energy systems model of Qatar as a tool to support national energy-environmental policy analysis

  • Contestabile, Marcello (Lead Principal Investigator)
  • Associate-2, Research (Research Associate)
  • Associate-4, Research (Research Associate)
  • Hawkes, Dr.Adam (Principal Investigator)
  • Alhaj, Dr.Mohamed (Principal Investigator)
  • Bukshaisha, Mr.Mohammed (Principal Investigator)

Project: Applied Research

Project Details

Abstract

In line with its National Vision 2030 and National Development Strategy, the State of Qatar is introducing policies to increase energy efficiency, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, protect the environment and diversify the economy. Designing effective and efficient policies in the areas of energy, the environment and related technology poses substantial challenges, not least because of the many inter-dependencies and long lead times. For this reason, policymakers worldwide are increasingly adding energy systems models to their toolkits. These are computer models that represent all energy supply, conversion and demand processes that occur in extraction, processing, industry, power generation, buildings and transport, and allow to explore the long-term evolution of the energy system under different scenarios. In particular, energy systems models compute costs, fuel consumption and emissions for each sector over time and allow one to identify optimum paths for the evolution of the energy system taking the relevant constraints into account. The use of energy systems models in the GCC has so far been limited but interest is growing due to the major energy and environmental policy reforms the region has embarked upon. At HBKU/QEERI we propose to develop a national energy systems model for Qatar, which is so far lacking, for the benefit of stakeholders in government and industry. The development of such a model is a multi-year endeavour that requires extensive resources and the close involvement of stakeholders. The involvement of all relevant stakeholders will be sought from the beginning of the project and an Expert Advisory Group built, which will meet regularly with the project team to review progress, support data gathering and analysis activities and provide strategic guidance. The project will be conducted in partnership with Imperial College London, where two QNRF-funded PhD candidates working on this subject are currently hosted. Kahramaa is also a partner of the project and will co-fund it in-kind by contributing the time of two of their staff who will be directly involved in the research, particularly supporting data gathering activities. Abdullah bin Hamad Al-Attiyah International Foundation for Energy and Sustainable Development will provide additional in-kind support, particularly helping us build the project’s Expert Advisory Group, disseminate our research to their wide membership of national stakeholders, giving us strategic guidance and feedback on our research. We plan to leverage the two PhD projects at Imperial College while considerably adding to them so that a full energy systems model for the country can be developed and made available to the stakeholders in a timely manner. The first PhD student to work on this subject has already developed a first-order model based on an optimization algorithm that is similar to that of the TIMES platform we will be using for the full model. The student will join the HBKU/QEERI team in 2020 upon graduation. Thus, the project proposed will directly contribute to QNRF’s aim of building local research capacity. TIMES, the most widely used platform by governments today, has many strengths using an approach based on optimization and perfect foresight, though this does not realistically simulate the real-world investment decisions of the relevant actors (see MUSE below). TIMES therefore is a tool that is best used for designing the best possible energy system, and then “back-casting”, i.e.: setting long-term policy goals and then working backwards to develop least-cost policy pathways that are compatible with them. As such, TIMES will be used as part of a suite of evidence to inform government policy. In parallel with the development of the TIMES model, the second PhD student will work on building a different, complementary model based on an innovative approach developed at Imperial College called MUSE, the main feature of which is the use of agent-based simulation of consumer and investor behavior. The MUSE model will provide complementary insights to the TIMES model, investigating real-world investment decision making, enabling stakeholders to explore the real-world policy instruments that can achieve the optimal targets defined by the TIMES model. As such, this project will deliver a state-of-the-art modelling suite for Qatar, underpinning robust policy making in the years to come.

Submitting Institute Name

Hamad Bin Khalifa University (HBKU)
Sponsor's Award NumberNPRP13S-0204-200250
Proposal IDEX-QNRF-NPRPS-20
StatusActive
Effective start/end date15/06/2115/12/24

Collaborative partners

Primary Theme

  • None

Primary Subtheme

  • None

Secondary Theme

  • None

Secondary Subtheme

  • None

Keywords

  • Energy systems analysis,Energy & environment,Energy policy,Sustainability planning,Energy planning
  • None

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