Improving solar radiation forecasting by explicit inclusion of atmospheric aerosol microphysics and chemistry: Application to Education City, Doha, a 100% solar-powered community

This proposal outlines a research project aimed at studying the effects of aerosols and clouds on solar resource assessment and forecasting in a dusty, arid environment, Qatar. The project brings together expertise in solar resource measurement, cloud and aerosol detection using sky imagers, and the use of a three-dimensional chemical transport model for air quality and solar radiation forecasting. The project's main objective is to improve the accuracy and reliability of solar radiation forecasts by combining various advanced measurement techniques, innovative algorithms, and modelling approaches. The specific sub-objectives include investigating the role of aerosols and clouds, reconstructing aerosol conditions and cloud fields using all-sky imagers, including the different aerosol-radiation interaction variations resulting from different chemical components in atmospheric particulate matter and finally integrating these methods to enhance solar resource assessment and forecasting. The project aims to provide results that closely align with reference measurements and offer a viable approach for detailed solar radiation forecasts in aerosol or cloudy conditions. The expected scientific outcomes of the project include a deeper understanding of aerosol and cloud effects on solar radiation, the promotion of a new generation of coupled chemistry/weather numerical prediction models and all-sky imagers in solar resource assessment, and the development of advanced methodologies for cloud and aerosol detection and monitoring. The project's impact extends to climate assessment, improved in-situ datasets for international initiatives, cost reduction of monitoring networks, and market development for Earth observation commercial sector and downstream users. The proposed work plan includes long-term solar resource assessment using a network of solar stations, retrieval of aerosol and cloud optical properties using all-sky imagers, and the application of a three-dimensional chemical transport model for state-of-the-art dust and solar radiation forecasting. The project also emphasizes data quality control, dissemination of results to stakeholders and the public, and the training and education of a number of university students in atmospheric monitoring, modelling and applications. In the last stage of the proposed work, a techno-economic analysis will offer an application for a hybrid PV-CSP solar plant (with Thermal Energy Storage) for the community of Education City in Doha using 100% renewable energy sources 24/7. Overall, this research project aims to advance knowledge in the fields of solar resource assessment and forecasting by bringing together innovative methodologies, advanced measurement techniques, and modelling approaches to provide accurate and reliable solar radiation forecasts, leading to improved climate projections, cost-effective monitoring networks, and new opportunities in the Earth observation sector.

Hamad Bin Khalifa University (HBKU)