A Probabilistic Methodology for Inclusion of Transformer End-of-life Failure in Power System Cascading Failure Simulations

The paper proposes a probabilistic methodology to include end-of-life failure of power transformers into cascading failure simulation. To this end, the paper has adopted Arrhenius-Weibull distribution to characterise end-of-life failure of transformers under different loading conditions. In order to simulate different system states, Non-sequential Monte Carlo simulation method has been used. The simulation of cascading failure of transformer is achieved by comparing the unavailability of individual transformers under different loading condition to a random number. The method is applied to a realistic transmission network containing 154 transformers. The method can be used to feed into decision-making process to replace ageing transformers.