A Probabilistic Methodology for Inclusion of Transformer End-of-life Failure in Power System Cascading Failure Simulations

Selma K.E. Awadallah, Jovica V. Milanovic

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

2 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The paper proposes a probabilistic methodology to include end-of-life failure of power transformers into cascading failure simulation. To this end, the paper has adopted Arrhenius-Weibull distribution to characterise end-of-life failure of transformers under different loading conditions. In order to simulate different system states, Non-sequential Monte Carlo simulation method has been used. The simulation of cascading failure of transformer is achieved by comparing the unavailability of individual transformers under different loading condition to a random number. The method is applied to a realistic transmission network containing 154 transformers. The method can be used to feed into decision-making process to replace ageing transformers.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication2022 17th International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems, PMAPS 2022
PublisherInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
ISBN (Electronic)9781665412117
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2022
Externally publishedYes
Event17th International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems, PMAPS 2022 - Manchester, United Kingdom
Duration: 12 Jun 202215 Jun 2022

Publication series

Name2022 17th International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems, PMAPS 2022

Conference

Conference17th International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems, PMAPS 2022
Country/TerritoryUnited Kingdom
CityManchester
Period12/06/2215/06/22

Keywords

  • Arrhenius-Weibull distribution
  • End-of-life Failure
  • Monte Carlo Simulations
  • cascading failure
  • transformers

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