Assessing Climate Variability in Tomato Supply Chain Optimization: A Multi-Objective Approach for Qatar's Tomato Imports

In an era of escalating climate variability, characterized by unpredictable monthly trends in temperature and precipitation, the stability of global food supply chains faces unprecedented challenges. Nowhere is this more evident than in countries like Qatar, which heavily depend on imports to meet their food demands. This research investigates the influence of climate variability on determining the optimal network of trade partners to supply tomatoes to Qatar. The suggested framework employs a stochastic multi-objective optimization framework, simultaneously addressing critical objectives: the minimization of transportation costs, the reduction of water consumption, and the tracking of virtual water trade in tomato imports, while accounting for climate uncertainty, such as rainfall, modeled as stochastic parameters following a normal distribution. Findings of this study shed light on the intricate dynamics within Qatar's tomato sourcing network. A notable observation relates to the identification of discernible seasonal variability in the percentage contribution of certain countries, with a visible aggregation of supply sources during the summer months. This observation underscores the susceptibility of tomato supply chains to the influence of climatic factors, particularly during periods characterised by heightened fluctuations in temperature and low precipitations. Furthermore, results discern explicit correlations between climate variability and trade networks selection. These findings not only furnish invaluable insights for Qatar's policymaking in the field of imports but also contribute to a broader comprehension of the strategies employed by nations reliant on food imports as they endeavor to strengthen the resilience and sustainability of their supply chains in the midst of prevailing climatic uncertainties.