Decarbonization pathways for Qatar: A sectoral approach for energy transition

Qatar has one of the highest per capita energy consumption worldwide, with heavy reliance on fossil fuels. This study evaluates decarbonization pathways using scenario-based modeling to develop long-term energy transition scenarios for the building, transport and industry sectors. Five scenarios are explored: Business-as-Usual (BAU), Demand Side Management (DSM), District Cooling Upscale (DCU), Electric Vehicle Uptake (EVU), and Industrial Heat Decarbonization (IHD). The BAU scenario represents the “status quo” projection of Qatar's energy system if no significant changes occur. The DSM scenario cuts GHG emissions in the building sector by a 27%, mainly through energy efficiency. The DCU scenario projects a 25% reduction in emissions by upscaling the district cooling share in the building sector and avoids 7 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent by 2050. In the Transport sector, the EVU scenario focuses on electric vehicle adoption, avoiding 28% of transport-related emissions. The IHD scenario targets industrial decarbonization through electrification and fuel switching, achieving a 32% and avoiding 12 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent by 2050. The study offers key insights into Qatar's energy system and outlines sector-specific policy considerations in efforts to achieve Qatar's current climate targets and design Qatar's low-emission development strategy. This research serves as a reference for other Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries facing similar energy transition challenges.