Developing hydrogen strategies for fossil fuel exporting countries under uncertainty: The case of Qatar

The economies of fossil fuel exporters are threatened by global efforts to transition away from using unabated fossil fuels. Producing clean hydrogen, for export or domestic use in manufacturing, provides a potentially major opportunity to continue exploiting their fossil fuel resources. However, the substantial uncertainties affecting the future of clean hydrogen make developing hydrogen strategies complex. This paper characterizes such uncertainties and conducts an initial assessment of possible investment risks and critical decisions associated with different strategies in the case of Qatar, a leading exporter of natural gas. We find that strategies mostly focused on using clean hydrogen domestically to produce clean commodities are relatively low risk; inversely, becoming a leading exporter of clean hydrogen substantially increases investment risks. Also, irrespective of the strategy, higher investment is required in the early years, suggesting that, once a strategy is chosen, changing path may prove difficult.