Modelling of ageing distribution cable for replacement planning

Muhammad Buhari; Victor Levi; Selma K.E. Awadallah

doi:10.1109/TPWRS.2015.2499269

Modelling of ageing distribution cable for replacement planning

Muhammad Buhari, Victor Levi, Selma K.E. Awadallah

University of Manchester

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

51 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The paper proposes a new reliability model of ageing distribution cable and simulation methodology for prioritization of cable replacement. The proposed reliability model combines IEC cable thermal model, Arrhenius aging model and Weibull probability distribution. Here, Weibull scale parameter is defined through the Arrhenius aging model, in which conductor temperature is governed by the cable thermal model. A novel estimation method for the calculation of Arrhenius model parameters is proposed. The cable reliability model is then incorporated into the developed sequential Monte Carlo simulation procedure and reliability indicators and loss-of-lives are calculated. An industry based cable ranking scheme is further proposed to prioritize individual cable due for replacement. The whole methodology is tested on several medium voltage distribution networks.

Original language	English
Article number	7339493
Pages (from-to)	3996-4004
Number of pages	9
Journal	IEEE Transactions on Power Systems
Volume	31
Issue number	5
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1109/TPWRS.2015.2499269
Publication status	Published - Sept 2016
Externally published	Yes

Keywords

Ageing distribution cable
Arrhenius model
Weibull stochastic process
cable thermal model
distribution system reliability
replacement planning

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10.1109/TPWRS.2015.2499269

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title = "Modelling of ageing distribution cable for replacement planning",

abstract = "The paper proposes a new reliability model of ageing distribution cable and simulation methodology for prioritization of cable replacement. The proposed reliability model combines IEC cable thermal model, Arrhenius aging model and Weibull probability distribution. Here, Weibull scale parameter is defined through the Arrhenius aging model, in which conductor temperature is governed by the cable thermal model. A novel estimation method for the calculation of Arrhenius model parameters is proposed. The cable reliability model is then incorporated into the developed sequential Monte Carlo simulation procedure and reliability indicators and loss-of-lives are calculated. An industry based cable ranking scheme is further proposed to prioritize individual cable due for replacement. The whole methodology is tested on several medium voltage distribution networks.",

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AB - The paper proposes a new reliability model of ageing distribution cable and simulation methodology for prioritization of cable replacement. The proposed reliability model combines IEC cable thermal model, Arrhenius aging model and Weibull probability distribution. Here, Weibull scale parameter is defined through the Arrhenius aging model, in which conductor temperature is governed by the cable thermal model. A novel estimation method for the calculation of Arrhenius model parameters is proposed. The cable reliability model is then incorporated into the developed sequential Monte Carlo simulation procedure and reliability indicators and loss-of-lives are calculated. An industry based cable ranking scheme is further proposed to prioritize individual cable due for replacement. The whole methodology is tested on several medium voltage distribution networks.

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KW - Arrhenius model

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Modelling of ageing distribution cable for replacement planning

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Keywords

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