On the drivers, forecasts, and uncertainties of relative sea level rise in the Eastern Arabian Peninsula: A review

Sea level rise (SLR) is a global phenomenon affecting coastlines worldwide. However, the impact of SLR varies significantly depending on the local geophysical drivers. For the Gulf, the low-lying and hyper-arid coastal areas are particularly vulnerable to SLR, in particular the coastline of the eastern Arabian Peninsula encompassing populous cities and critical infrastructures in Iraq, Kuwait, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), Bahrain, Qatar, and United Arab Emirates (UAE). The airports, seaports, power plants, refineries, and desalination plants in this region play a pivotal role in both the local economy and global trade. However, their vulnerability to SLR remains largely unquantified due to the absence of a comprehensive analysis of its regional drivers, projections, and uncertainties. To address this deficiency, this study reviews the most up-to-date literature and identified past and current global and local SLR trends and drivers, despite the lack of literature and understanding of the vulnerability of the Gulf to SLR in comparison with global scale literature. The review includes the decadal changes in the main drivers affecting the sea level within this semi-closed water body such as precipitation, sea surface trends, terrestrial temperature trends, sea level rise, salinity levels, seawater thickness equivalence from GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment), sedimentation, and coastal erosion. Since the region is a semi-enclosed shallow waterbody, it is sensitive to sea surface temperature and sea level rise. There is a need to investigate SLR regionally, with particular emphasis on the low-lying coastal areas in the Arabian Gulf. Further research on sea level rise is crucial for understanding its causes, and impacts, and developing effective strategies to mitigate and adapt to this global challenge.