TY - JOUR
T1 - Seasonal variation of Covid-19 incidence and role of land surface and air temperatures
T2 - a case study in the west of Iran
AU - Maleki, Afshin
AU - Aboubakri, Omid
AU - Rezaee, Reza
AU - Alahmad, Barrak
AU - Sera, Francesco
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2023 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.
PY - 2024
Y1 - 2024
N2 - .In this study, we assessed the impact of satellite-based Land Surface Temperature (LST) and Air Temperature (AT) on covid-19. First, we spatio-temporally kriged the LST and applied bias correction. The epidemic shape, timing, and size were compared after and before adjusting for the predictors. Given the non-linear behavior of a pandemic, a semi-parametric regression model was used. In addition, the interaction effect between the predictors and season was assessed. Before adjusting for the predictors, the peak happened at the end of hot season. After adjusting, it was attenuated and slightly moved forward. Moreover, the Attributable Fraction (AF) and Peak to Trough Relative (PTR) were % 23 (95% CI; 15, 32) and 1.62 (95%CI; 1.34, 1.97), respectively. We found that temperature might have changed the seasonal variation of covid-19. However, given the large uncertainty after adjusting for the variables, it was hard to provide conclusive evidence in the region we studied.
AB - .In this study, we assessed the impact of satellite-based Land Surface Temperature (LST) and Air Temperature (AT) on covid-19. First, we spatio-temporally kriged the LST and applied bias correction. The epidemic shape, timing, and size were compared after and before adjusting for the predictors. Given the non-linear behavior of a pandemic, a semi-parametric regression model was used. In addition, the interaction effect between the predictors and season was assessed. Before adjusting for the predictors, the peak happened at the end of hot season. After adjusting, it was attenuated and slightly moved forward. Moreover, the Attributable Fraction (AF) and Peak to Trough Relative (PTR) were % 23 (95% CI; 15, 32) and 1.62 (95%CI; 1.34, 1.97), respectively. We found that temperature might have changed the seasonal variation of covid-19. However, given the large uncertainty after adjusting for the variables, it was hard to provide conclusive evidence in the region we studied.
KW - Covid-19
KW - Iran
KW - ambient temperature
KW - seasonal variation
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85152261337&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1080/09603123.2023.2196057
DO - 10.1080/09603123.2023.2196057
M3 - Article
C2 - 36998230
AN - SCOPUS:85152261337
SN - 0960-3123
VL - 34
SP - 1342
EP - 1354
JO - International Journal of Environmental Health Research
JF - International Journal of Environmental Health Research
IS - 3
ER -