Seasonal variation of Covid-19 incidence and role of land surface and air temperatures: a case study in the west of Iran

Afshin Maleki, Omid Aboubakri*, Reza Rezaee, Barrak Alahmad, Francesco Sera

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

2 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

.In this study, we assessed the impact of satellite-based Land Surface Temperature (LST) and Air Temperature (AT) on covid-19. First, we spatio-temporally kriged the LST and applied bias correction. The epidemic shape, timing, and size were compared after and before adjusting for the predictors. Given the non-linear behavior of a pandemic, a semi-parametric regression model was used. In addition, the interaction effect between the predictors and season was assessed. Before adjusting for the predictors, the peak happened at the end of hot season. After adjusting, it was attenuated and slightly moved forward. Moreover, the Attributable Fraction (AF) and Peak to Trough Relative (PTR) were % 23 (95% CI; 15, 32) and 1.62 (95%CI; 1.34, 1.97), respectively. We found that temperature might have changed the seasonal variation of covid-19. However, given the large uncertainty after adjusting for the variables, it was hard to provide conclusive evidence in the region we studied.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1342-1354
Number of pages13
JournalInternational Journal of Environmental Health Research
Volume34
Issue number3
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2024
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • Covid-19
  • Iran
  • ambient temperature
  • seasonal variation

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